First, clarify: The quantum threat targets signatures (Shor’s algorithm, which can derive private keys from exposed public keys), not mining. Three key developments that heightened interest in 2026: • On February 11, BIP-360 (the first quantum-resistant address type) was merged into the Bitcoin proposal repository. • In March, Google Quantum AI’s research reduced the estimated number of qubits required to break Bitcoin’s elliptic curve by approximately 20-fold. • In April, researchers broke a 15-qubit elliptic curve key on publicly available quantum hardware, winning the Project Eleven 1 BTC prize (still far from a real-world attack). However, industry consensus on timelines is quite uniform: • Grayscale believes a viable threat is unlikely before 2030 and will not impact prices in 2026. • Bernstein estimates the industry has 3 to 5 years to upgrade—no immediate urgency. • Adam Back believes it will still take decades. My view: The risk is real but manageable. A more practical question than “will it go to zero” is migration: How do we move funds from old addresses with exposed public keys? BIP-361 proposes a phased migration, but lost coins and community coordination costs remain the real challenges. For individuals, avoiding address reuse and checking whether your wallet has a quantum-resistant upgrade path is far more useful than panic. This is not investment advice.