A crash market is only as good as its definition of a crash. @xomarket has a live market on whether today, Oct 19, turns into another Black Monday. The launch card showed Yes at 15%. Before you price it, check three things in the resolution rules: 1. Which index and what drop. On Oct 19, 1987 the Dow fell 22.6% in one session. A 3% red day is a bad Monday, not that. 2. Close or intraday. A 7% or 13% S&P 500 drop before 3:25pm ET pauses all US trading for 15 minutes, and 20% stops it for the day. A dip can trip a pause and still recover by the close. 3. Who prints the number and when. Name the data source and the cutoff, or the outcome becomes an argument. The odds only mean something once the resolution line is clear.
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