source avatarBull Theory

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SOMETHING DOESN’T ADD UP IN CHINA RIGHT NOW China’s economy grew 4.5% in Q3, faster than expected and up from 4.3% in Q2, which was its weakest in over 3 years. Even after the rebound, 4.5% is the second slowest quarter since 2023. Industrial production growth increased to 5.5% in September while fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first nine months of 2026. China just posted a record monthly trade surplus of $133.5 billion. China’s growth is driven almost entirely by exports, particularly technology goods sold to the rest of the world. While domestic economy remains weak as the property sector continues to decline and consumer spending remains weak while infrastructure investment falls 4.2%. China’s stock market has now fallen for 10 straight weeks, its longest losing streak in history. So the economy is growing, but the market keeps falling. Strong manufacturing and exports are making China’s overall economic growth look much stronger than the reality on the ground. And even exports are now under pressure, as trade tensions with the EU keep rising. China meeting its growth target doesn’t mean its economy is healthy. It means global demand for Chinese goods remains strong while domestic demand continues to struggle.

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