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Zero Equilibrium Macro and Markets Weekly: Fixed Income [Part 4: A Late Week Yield Compression in the Middle of Persistent Rate Risks.] Fixed income markets experienced a late week easing in Treasury yields following earlier firmness, providing some support for bond prices. US 10-year Treasury yield recorded a –2.97% week-on-week decline, although it remained +27.11% higher year-on-year according to the figures compiled for this brief. This late-week movement suggests a partial bond repricing based on interest rate expectations as the market continues to assess the implications of geopolitical tensions, energy-driven inflation risks and concerns surrounding the broader technology-led equity selloff. The late week price action, makes the competing effects of inflation and growth expectations central to the direction of Treasury yields. Emerging market fixed income presents a different set of considerations. Though elevated domestic yields may offer substantial nominal income, the attractiveness of these instruments cannot be assessed independently of inflation, currency risk, sovereign credit conditions and the direction of global capital flows. For economies like Nigeria, the high yield environment remains critical and elevated nominal returns should be evaluated against domestic inflation, exchange-rate developments and the cost of financing government obligations. The ZE View: • The late week easing in Treasury yields offers some relief to bond prices, but the broader fixed-income outlook remains conditional. • The bond market is caught between persistent energy price pressures (which could delay monetary easing), and deteriorating growth expectations (which could strengthen demand for government securities). The balance between these forces, rather than the direction of yields over a single week, will determine whether the latest movement develops into a more durable bond market recovery. We resist the urge to makes calls of a debt crises in sovereign currency issuing economies, and argue that a currency debasement would not be unique t any one currency, an absorbed by the global financial markets should that debasement be as a result monetary sovereign bond issuances, and/or liquidity fears.

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