🔴 Market Signal remains RISK OFF. // Yesterday’s bounce failed with a hard selloff. Many names closed at the lows on breakdown candles. The 9-million scan showed under 50 stocks, so this is not a broad exit signal but recent leaders were hit hard over recent days. // NAAIM is at 96% invested, which points to more downside short to medium term. VIX rose 20% and closed at 20, showing the first real fear. The setup looks like late 2021: growth breaking down while mega caps and energy hold the market up. That led into the 2022–2023 bear market. // Action: Short-term very oversold. Watch what happens on Monday with KOSPI. As of now expect gap-up Monday. Potential bounce plays in $TQQQ or $SOXL only as day trades with quick profit taking. Overnight holds too risky due to gap-down risk. Key economic news for this week: Mon – Homebuilder Confidence; Tue – Housing Starts, Pending Home Sales; Wed – no major reports; Thu – Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, Kansas City Fed Survey; Fri – Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Consumer Sentiment. The most important event this week is Friday’s U.S. flash PMIs, especially services, because they will show whether economic momentum is holding up amid elevated rates and weak consumer sentiment. 1. This week, the stock market struggled as renewed inflation concerns, rising oil prices, and skepticism about AI infrastructure financing weighed on sentiment. The Nasdaq Composite led the retreat on pronounced weakness in semiconductor and growth stocks, while the DJIA held up better on strength in defensive and economically sensitive sectors. The PHLX Semiconductor Index plunged 11.4%, with $MU, $AMD, and other chipmakers under substantial pressure amid concerns about $CRWV’s debt and data center financing; $AAPL was an exception on reports of strong iPhone Duo demand. September CPI and PPI showed accelerating price pressures, and WTI crude rose above $100 per barrel on Middle East tensions. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 14 basis points to 5.10%. Energy, health care, consumer staples, and financials provided pockets of strength, supported by better-than-expected retail sales and resilient labor data, though Thursday’s rebound proved short-lived. On Friday, the stock market finished sharply lower, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 2.1%, the Russell 2000 losing 1.7%, the S&P 500 declining 1.1%, and the DJIA shedding 0.3%. $CRWV dropped 11.91%, $MU fell 5.63%, $AMD declined 5.95%, and $SNDK lost 6.85%. Communication services and information technology each fell 2.5%, while consumer discretionary declined 1.2%; $AAPL rose 0.43% on iPhone Duo pre-order strength. The equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Vanguard Morningstar Mega Cap Growth ETF declined 2.3%, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index dropped 3.8%. Energy rose 2.5% as crude climbed 3.6% to $101.40. The 2-year yield slipped 1 basis point to 4.74%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields each rose 1 basis point to 5.10% and 5.44%. The VIX surged 22.5% to 20.16. September industrial production rose 0.7% and capacity utilization reached 76.9%, while import and export prices accelerated. 2. Today saw a bearish day with about 400 stocks down. // All breadth ratios bearish. Getting close to extreme but still not there yet. // T2108 still at 30. // 20s are in a very extreme bearish condition. A bounce should be incoming. // NAAIM shows professionals 96% invested. An elevated level. This means like more downside ahead. // Finally VIX made a move up 20% and closes at 20. // Market Signal RISK OFF. 3. EOD: $CRGV, $KMI. ANTS: $SOXL, $TQQQ. SWINGS: none. EP: none.