WEEKLY MACRO AND RISK CALENDAR | OCTOBER 5–9, 2026 This week’s main theme: With the Fed having raised rates to the 3.75–4.00% range in September and non-farm payrolls showing a weak print (+29K, unemployment at 4.2%) on Friday, market attention this week will center on the Fed’s meeting minutes. Data flow is sparse; market direction will be largely determined by the interest rate trajectory and inflation language in the minutes. Positioning ahead of next week’s U.S. inflation data may become visible in the second half of the week. October 5, Monday 🇺🇸 16:45 – S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (September) 🇺🇸 17:00 – ISM Services PMI (September); price and employment subcomponents to take center stage October 6, Tuesday 🇺🇸 15:30 – Trade Balance (August) October 7, Wednesday 🇺🇸 21:00 – FOMC September Meeting Minutes (September 15–16) 🇺🇸 22:00 – Consumer Credit (August) October 8, Thursday 🇪🇺 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Summary (September meeting); publication time unconfirmed, not listed 🇺🇸 15:30 – Weekly Initial Jobless Claims October 9, Friday 🇺🇸 17:00 – Factory Orders (August) IMPACT ON CRYPTO MARKETS AND WEEKLY RISK POINTS The defining event of the week is the FOMC minutes, due Wednesday evening. The rate hike was unanimous; the key question is how strongly the minutes reflect market expectations that the committee signaled another hike is coming. A hawkish tone could push the dollar and real yields higher, increasing selling pressure on Bitcoin:native and altcoins. A more cautious tone than expected could provide short-term relief to risk appetite. Combined with weak employment data, the rate hike suggests markets are caught between stagnation and inflation. For this reason, Monday’s ISM Services price component is more than a routine surprise—it could directly influence Fed expectations. A strong price component would harden rate hike pricing; a weak employment subcomponent would have the opposite effect. Thursday’s jobless claims will be monitored to confirm or contradict signs of labor market deterioration following Friday’s weak report. A notable rise in claims would heighten growth concerns. The ECB meeting summary will offer clues on the eurozone’s interest rate path; movements in the euro against the dollar will indirectly impact crypto markets. From a risk perspective, the early part of the week features low data density, which may lead to thin liquidity; sudden volatility and liquidation waves around Wednesday at 21:00 are highly probable. Although the U.S. inflation data due on October 14 falls outside this week, positioning and market setup toward the weekend may already reflect anticipation of that release. Due to weak weekend liquidity, sharp price swings after Friday’s close should not be overlooked.