25/09/26 Investor’s Daily Brief - Oracle’s AI Leases Expose the Cost of Delays AI spending supports growth, but power constraints, expensive mortgages and ambitious valuations test who ultimately earns the return. Market snapshot: S&P 500: 7,712.09 (+0.10%), September 25 intraday. Nasdaq: Composite 27,009.30 (+0.26%), September 25 intraday. Oil: WTI November 2026 futures $94.10/barrel (-0.54%), September 25 intraday. Bitcoin: $83,909.36 (+0.10% over 24 hours), September 25, 23:14 SGT. Quotes observed 23:14 SGT; source timestamps vary; index/oil moves versus prior close. Inside today: - Oracle’s lease commitments outlast possible power delays - AI’s spending scale magnifies the financing question - Seven-percent mortgages squeeze turnover and builder margins - Persistent AI demand complicates the interest-rate brake - Blue Origin’s valuation needs an extraordinary acceleration Capital spending can sustain growth while making that growth harder to finance. Oracle exposes the gap between signing obligations and earning returns. 1. Oracle: deferred full rent still leaves a bill The WSJ reports Oracle can defer Project Jupiter’s full rent up to three years, with a corresponding lease extension preserving its ultimate obligation. Oracle says the project remains on schedule; Blue Owl says financial commitments are unchanged. Power and permitting progress will determine whether financing buys productive capacity or additional waiting time. 2. AI: scale raises the stakes Brookings models $10.3 trillion of U.S. AI-infrastructure investment during 2025–2032. That is a central scenario, not committed spending. The test is whether customer cash generation catches up with debt and leases. 3. Housing: expensive capital bites Freddie Mac’s September 24 average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.03%. Builder subsidies can protect sales while eroding margins; stronger volume alone would not establish a healthy recovery. 4. AI: the rate brake works unevenly Resilient deployments could sustain supplier demand while higher rates suppress housing. That conditional growth argument needs evidence of monetization, not merely continued spending. 5. Blue Origin: valuation needs execution The WSJ reports $10 billion raised at a $140 billion valuation. Its cited documents forecast about $1.4 billion of revenue in 2026 and more than $30 billion in 2030. Launch cadence and paying customers must support that ambition. Bottom line The growth case strengthens only when operating capacity and customer revenue catch up with obligations.