Nothing stops this train... AJSM: This is being sold as practical deficit reduction. It isn’t. It’s a one-time mark-to-market print plus yield-curve repression, then a press conference that says the debt got “bought back.” Walk the recipe against the actual books. Not vibes. US official gold is about 261.5 million ounces. Treasury owns it. The Fed does not. It is still booked at the 1973 statutory price of $42.2222 an ounce, which is why the gold-certificate line at the Fed is only about $11 billion. At a market price near $4,300 that same pile is worth about $1.1 trillion. That $1.1 trillion is the real number if you revalue official gold to today’s market. It is not “multiple trillions” unless you set the official price far above the market, which is just announcing a print. Gross federal debt is $40.1 trillion. Debt held by the public is $32.4 trillion. The FY2026 deficit is already about $2.0 trillion through eleven months. A $1.1 trillion gold credit is roughly half a year of red ink and about 3% of the public debt stock. Next year’s deficit starts rebuilding the pile the week after the ceremony. To actually match the $32 trillion in public debt you would need an official gold price around $124,000 an ounce. To match the whole $40 trillion stock, more like $153,000. That is not “let gold moon.” That is a political official price. Markets would read it as default-by-reprice on day one. What “revalue official gold” actually does, mechanically: Treasury raises the official book price. It issues more gold certificates to the Fed against the same bars. The Fed credits the Treasury General Account. No gold is sold. No new Treasury bond is auctioned. New dollars appear on Fed ledgers. When Treasury then spends that TGA balance to buy bonds, the TGA falls and bank reserves rise. Bonds outstanding can shrink. Private claims on the Fed grow. You swapped a Treasury note for a reserve balance. You did not delete the liability. You changed its form and cheapened the unit. That is why this is not deficit reduction. Deficit reduction is spending minus taxes. This recipe does not touch spending and does not touch taxes. It monetizes a revalued asset once. The flow keeps adding ~$2 trillion a year. “Instruct Warsh” is the wrong verb. The official gold price sits in statute (31 U.S.C. 5116–5117). Congress and Treasury change $42.22. The Fed books the certificates. The sitting Chair just hiked to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 and is talking commodities and diesel, not zero rates. Using the Chair as a ZIRP-and-revalue button is not how the legal hook works, and it is not what the live FOMC just did. The front half of the recipe is older than the gold line. Cut funds to zero. Cut interest on reserves to zero. Buy coupons with 0% T-bills. That is financial repression. Japan ran the polite version for decades: cap yields, roll the debt, let savers eat negative real rates, keep zombies alive. Doing it here, after a hike, with gold already near $4,300 and diesel at records, is the angry version. People on wages and savings pay through prices and a worse exchange rate for their time. People who already own duration, houses, gold, and scarce assets get marked up first. IORB to zero is not free. It is a tax on banks and a shove of trillions of reserves into bills, credit, and assets. Buying long debt with 0% bills shortens maturity and raises how often the Treasury has to come back to market. That is more rollover risk, not less. “Let gold moon” first is an admission the dollar has to fall before the accounting trick looks large enough. If gold has to rip so the official revaluation prints “multiple trillions,” you already chose devaluation. Then you add the certificate print on top. Bond buybacks can knock the stock of notes down while long rates want to rise unless you repress them. The recipe only closes if you do all of it: zero the short end, flood reserves, and cap the long end. That is not price stability. That is fiscal dominance with a gold costume. A few terms, in English: TGA = the Treasury’s checking account at the Fed. About $947 billion as of September 23. Already huge. The gold trick adds a one-time deposit to that account. Gold certificates = an intra-government IOU. Not something you can take to a window and exchange for a bar. Households do not get a gold dollar. The state gets a book gain. IORB = the interest the Fed pays banks on reserves. Zeroing it forces that money somewhere else. It does not shrink federal spending. 0% T-bills = short-term government IOUs that pay nothing. Using them to “buy back” higher-rate debt is rolling the credit card to a 0% promo, not paying off the card. This also collides with the other official project already in motion. Payment stablecoins and tokenized T-bills only work as a quiet bid for the short end if the bill still yields something and the dollar unit is not being openly diluted. GENIUS takes effect January 18, 2027. Tether and Circle together are a mid-tier T-bill buyer, on the order of $166–200 billion, against a $7 trillion bill market and $2.5 trillion of T-bills already inside money-market funds. ZIRP plus a gold-moon official reval is a different machine. You can wrap the collateral and keep the unit, or you can break the unit and pretend the debt vanished. Doing both at once is how you get a programmable 0% dollar and call it innovation. Would the gold even support a multi-trillion official price politically? Government position is the metal is there. Last full-style inventory talk is 1950s. 1974 was a tour and a sample. Later years are seals and statistics. A senator walking Fort Knox in August 2026 and saying he saw gold is an inspection, not a modern bar-by-bar assay. Raise the official price into the tens or hundreds of thousands and the first question is no longer duration math. It is “prove every ounce.” That is a legitimacy cost, not a rounding error. 1934 and 1972–73 used this hook. Those official-price increases were real. They were also tiny next to a $40 trillion stock and a $2 trillion flow. Scaling the same trick to today’s books and calling it “voila” is how late-cycle states paper solvency without cutting promises. If this were ever run at market price only, call it what it is: a ~$1.1 trillion one-shot, some bonds retired, reserves up, gold and scarce assets ripped, CPI and energy doing the rest of the work. If it were run at the price that actually “buys back the rest of the debt,” call that what it is too: a political rewrite of the unit of account. Neither path is deficit reduction. Deficit reduction is fewer promises or more taxes. This path is inflate, repress, and relabel. The debt is a flow problem wearing a stock costume. Changing the gold line on a spreadsheet does not change that. It changes who gets the first print. #bitcoin #reality #gold #bonds #AngryJapanification #turning
y –– egō eimiShare
Source:Show original
Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information.
Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.