source avatarAdam Livingston

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If you believe Bitcoin appreciates over time, when should a treasury company deliberately increase BTC sensitivity using variable-cost perpetual capital? Bitcoin treasury companies should underwrite amplification like a spread trade... look at the cost of capital against the expected return on the Bitcoin it buys. So I built a hypothetical Bitcoin treasury and ran four full cycles since 2015. Each one raises 50% of NAV in a 10% perpetual preferred, with every dividend paid by selling BTC. Identical start dates. The only variable is how far above the 200-week moving average Bitcoin traded when the preferred capital went in. Issued at the 200WMA: common ended a median 39% richer than the unamplified twin four years later. Issued at +100%: 26% richer. Every cycle slopes down. The 2022 cycle, the one where treasury companies actually existed, is the one that bites. Amplify at the 200WMA and common gained 22%. Amplify at +100% and common lost 8% against simply holding. Same security, same coupon, same size, and the only thing that changed was the price paid. Across the grid, moving entry from the 200WMA to +80% cost about twice as much as moving the coupon from 8% to 16%. Bitcoin sits 29% above its 200WMA today. Amplification is a purchase. Check the price tag:

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