Yet another bullish Bitcoin signal. But first you must understand that Bitcoin volatility isn't risk, kids. It's a state variable. I pulled every daily Bitcoin observation since late 2015 and split 90-day realized volatility by whether BTC sat above or below its 200-day moving average. When volatility was low, Bitcoin did well in both trend regimes. Median 1-year return: +133% above the 200DMA, +121% below it. When volatility was high, trend decided everything. Above the 200DMA: +78%. Below the 200DMA: −36%. Same energy. Opposite outcomes. High volatility above trend has looked like expansion. High volatility below trend has looked like a crime scene. Bitcoin today: Price: $84,378 200DMA: $70,759 (+19.2%) 90-day realized vol: 39.2%, the 13th percentile of its history. Price tells you direction. Volatility tells you energy. Right now Bitcoin is quiet, above trend, and sitting in the best-performing cell on the board:
Adam LivingstonShare
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