2018 Bitcoin was already deep into its bear market. The Fed kept tightening. Real yields rose. Risk appetite deteriorated. Bitcoin ground lower for almost a year. Then the final capitulation came. Peak to bottom: 364 days. 2022 Inflation forced aggressive tightening. Real yields went from deeply negative to strongly positive. Dollar conditions tightened. Crypto leverage broke. Major firms failed. Bitcoin reached its final low essentially one year after its peak. Peak to bottom: 366 days. 2026 Inflation has returned as a constraint. Fed is raising rates. Real yields exceed 2.6%. Ten-year nominal yield exceeds 5%. Oil is above $100. Hormuz remains impaired. Global freight costs have exploded. BOJ is tightening. ECB has tightened. Dollar is strengthening
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