Bitcoin is entering the same 12-to-13-month window in which every previous cycle bottomed, while real yields are higher than at the 2022 Bitcoin bottom, the Fed is raising rather than cutting rates, 10-year Treasuries are above 5%, a major energy shock is keeping inflation alive, multiple major central banks are tightening, and a fall to $40K would still be materially SHALLOWER than EVERY SINGLE previous completed major Bitcoin bear market.
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