What’s truly being traded in the market right now isn’t who will win the November 3 midterm elections, but whether Trump will back down early. The odds are overwhelmingly one-sided: on Polymarket, the probability of Democrats taking control of the House has reached 91%. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating stands at 32%, the lowest in history. So he must act before November with something that delivers immediate positive results. Trump has neither the possibility nor the necessity to continue escalating trade wars, tariff battles, conflicts with Iran, or pushing oil prices higher before the election.
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