Four-year cycle vs PMI for Bitcoin’s next bull. Neither is gospel. Both have real arguments. Four-year cycle • Peaks landed with ugly regularity: 2013, 2017, 2021, Oct 2025 • 2025 top hit ~18 months after the Apr 2024 halving, inside the old 480–550 day window • The clock held even as the crash got milder (~50% vs 75–85%) • Last huge rally (2023–25) happened while PMI spent years below 50 • Month-to-month PMI vs BTC correlation over 15 years is basically 0 • Template for next bull: late-2026 low, grind, then the real expansion around/after the 2028 halving PMI / business cycle • Major tops in 2017 and 2021 lined up with hot ISM prints (60+) • BTC is a high-beta risk asset; liquidity and risk appetite matter more than miner issuance now • Halving shock is smaller every cycle; ETFs and treasuries dominate demand • PMI rising into expansion can mark the turn in credit/liquidity that actually funds the next leg • If the industrial cycle never peaks hard, you may not get an old-school blow-off or an old-school 80% bear • Current read: ISM already expanding while BTC is still well below the 2025 high — could mean the cycle is stretching, not ending My lean: the four-year timing still has the cleaner track record for when the next distinct bull starts. PMI is better as a modifier of size and sentiment than as the main clock. Watch both. Ignore people selling one as a religion. What are your thoughts?