Everyone is celebrating the MVRV cross. Nobody is asking what happens to this bid if the compute trade breaks. BlackRock put out research this week arguing AI compute itself becomes an investable digital-asset market, a $15T demand engine. The crypto crowd read the headline and bought. What they missed is the plumbing underneath it: the same AI datacenter buildout is now competing with miners for power, land, and capital. That is a cost shock aimed straight at the marginal $BTC producer, and it lands while price sits at $85,387, well under where most of the 2024-25 hash expansion was financed. The ETF bid is real. 14,613 BTC in a day, $1.26B, is genuine spot absorption. But it is one buyer cohort. If AI capex keeps pulling power contracts away from miners and the hashrate economics compress, you get a slow bleed in miner treasury selling that ETFs have to eat. That is the supply nobody is pricing into the momentum signal. My read: the MVRV cross holds only if ETF inflows stay above roughly 5k BTC a day. Below that, the miner cost curve does the talking and $85k becomes resistance, not support. Watch hashrate and power contract news, not the chart. If I am wrong, it looks like this: inflows stay hot, miners keep hodling, and the cross runs the way it did in 2019 and 2023.