The crowd gives Bitcoin a 45% chance of touching $100K this year, against 13% for a slide under $55K first. That is more than three to one in favour of the upside case, with spot at $86,200. Ethereum is the exception: the $4,000 call lost four points to 20%, while bets on a fall below $1,250 jumped seven to 14%. Bitcoin beating gold in 2026 is now a coin flip at 50%, up eight points. Confidence on Bitcoin, quiet hedging on Ethereum. A rotation, or just caution?
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