Chen Guilin’s Trading Notes: September 23, 2026 One, Some Random Thoughts It turns out traders can’t sleep well in bear markets—and neither can they in bull markets. So, traders don’t deserve sleep. Two, Market Perspective I strongly resonate with the argument made by 140 @KristinAbr8059. Personally, I’ve divided the overall crypto market movement into two phases based solely on Bitcoin’s price action: View (Figure 1): I initially predicted that, regardless of whether this rally is a major rebound within a bear market or a true bull market transition, $100,000 would be the ultimate barrier for Bitcoin’s first leg up—its probability of holding steady at that level is nearly zero. It’s not merely about a round number; the region above $100,000 corresponds to where Bitcoin formed its previous bull market top. Historically, all major market highs require multiple attempts to break through. Candlesticks: I view Bitcoin’s rise from 57 to 82 as the first phase of this rally, the pullback from 82 to 75 as the second phase, and the upward movement since 75 as the third phase—which has now been ongoing for a week. The crypto market’s rhythm never changes: Bitcoin and Ethereum lead, followed by altcoin rotation. Three, The Bull Market Bull market. So much information it’s overwhelming; so many coins rising it’s dizzying. If you misjudge the rhythm even slightly, it can throw off your entire subsequent strategy—leading to losses and emotional turmoil. All we can say now is that this is a test of vision, discipline, and execution: vision to pick altcoins (the person referenced here is the only true god of altcoin trading I know), discipline to resist the urge to jump in even when opportunities arise, and execution to strictly follow your system regardless of profit or loss—without disrupting your rhythm. Four, Strategy For the past few days, I’ve repeatedly emphasized this point in the community: the purpose of prediction isn’t to predict—the market can only ever be followed. But based on reasonable judgment, predictions can help determine whether your approach should be conservative or aggressive. My view: be aggressive with leverage early on, transition smoothly to conservative positioning in the later stages. Five, Assessment We are currently in the latter half of the overall market cycle—specifically, the first week of that latter half. Making money is still as easy as drinking water (simple market conditions) (Figure 2). Six, Speculation I wonder whether certain crypto assets will seamlessly hand off momentum to specific stocks or sectors in the U.S. stock market.