Has the bull market arrived? The divergence may lie between the U.S. and Asia. ┈➤ USDT’s market cap is declining, while USDC’s market cap is rising. See Figure 1. ┈➤ USDC is active; USDT appears indifferent. Yet the issue is this: despite BTC’s rally and capital inflows into USDC, USDT seems unmoved. In April this year, we saw USDC lead in capital inflows, followed by strong participation from USDT. But now, while USDC inflows remain robust, USDT shows little response. See Figure 2. This suggests that bullish sentiment is coming from the U.S., while Asia appears to be contributing little additional capital. ┈➤ Has the bull market truly arrived? This is one reason why Feng Brother believes the market is range-bound: there is no consensus on a bull market. Of course, another reason is that Feng Brother believes volatility will persist during the U.S. midterm elections due to political, economic factors, and fluctuations in oil prices driven by U.S.-Iran relations. So, which is dominant—USDC or USDT? Feng Brother believes USDC’s influence is growing stronger, but we cannot ignore USDT. After all, USDT’s trading volume is more than five times that of USDC (CoinGecko data shows nearly four times). See Figure 3. Moreover, this figure reflects only spot trading volume; in derivatives markets, USDT’s impact is far greater. Therefore, Feng Brother cautions that we cannot declare a bull market simply because USDC’s market cap is rising. His assessment is that following this bear market decline, the market has a natural demand for a rebound. Coupled with a low-frequency rate hiking environment over the next year-plus and expectations of future rate cuts, we may see a modest bull market similar to 2019. But before that modest bull arrives, observing USDT’s current behavior alongside the U.S. midterm elections, U.S.-Iran relations, and oil prices, Feng Brother senses there may still be some twists ahead. He hopes he’s wrong—after all, who doesn’t love a bull market, big or small?