Bessent & Co. The US 10-year yield hovering around 5% is, at this stage, less interesting than it might appear. It could drift higher from here - or not - the number itself is not the story. The story is bond volatility, which remains the variable that actually matters and which continues to be criminally underreported in favour of yield level commentary that is considerably easier to turn into a headline. Again: Here is why vol matters more: when it rises, prime brokers, CCPs, and the broader ecosystem of financial intermediaries respond by increasing haircuts on collateral. Post 102 to borrow 100, and suddenly you need to post 104. Multiply that across the system and you have a meaningful liquidity drain that has nothing to do with rate levels and everything to do with the risk management departments quietly adjusting their spreadsheets. Bessent is not fighting the bond vigilantes over yield levels. He is fighting them over volatility, which is the correct battle to be having. And as of now, he appears to be winning. A less exciting headline. A considerably more important observation.
Thorsten FroehlichShare
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