A Wyckoff distribution scenario may be forming in BTC. When I examine the 4-hour chart, what stands out to me is: After a strong rally, BTC has moved sideways in the 76,000–82,000 range. In Wyckoff terms, distribution often begins this way—price stops rising but doesn’t immediately fall. The structure I’m reading on the chart: • PSY: First significant supply after the strong rally • AR: First strong pullback • UT: Absorption of liquidity at the range high and re-entry • SOW: First clear sign of weakness on the downside • LPSY: Upward reactions beginning to lose momentum Volume is particularly important here. The volume that initiated the rally was very strong, but as price has remained in the upper range, volume has not sustained those levels—meaning price is still high, but buyer aggression is waning. For me, the key confirmation would be a break below the range support near 76,000. If price sustains itself below this level, it would be more accurate to speak of a transition into Wyckoff’s Phase E and an impending markdown move. In such a scenario, the previously broken zone of 68,100–66,900 could re-emerge as a focal point. But the crucial point is this: I am not currently saying “Bitcoin: native is definitely going down.” What we’re seeing now is a potential Wyckoff distribution pattern following the rally. A strong acceptance above 82,000 would significantly weaken this scenario. The structure must break first; then the scenario is confirmed.
Chartist | Süleyman 💲🦁Share

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