source avatarMental Hedge | Neurociência do investimento 🇧🇷

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Will crypto fall again? Question received. I’ll answer you—but BEFORE I do: the right question isn’t “Is a strong drop coming?” It’s “Does my strategy work in both scenarios?” If you allocate capital over time at compression points—as I’ve been doing over the past few months—the answer becomes less important. If it rises with part of your allocation? You profit and feel satisfied. If it falls? You stick to your strategy. Both outcomes serve you. “Oh, you’re avoiding the answer.” No—real investors don’t try to predict; they aim to make money. Only Twitter posters try to predict. Now, truly answering you: I don’t fully trust the BTC rally yet. I only trust it once the inevitable correction is absorbed (I explained this technical concept in a long post about the possible impulse move we had—search for it). “But it’s risen so much!” Let me repeat what I posted yesterday: “Rising doesn’t mean it won’t drop. The point of attraction is still 52K, and it’s only invalidated if BTC’s pullback is absorbed by buying pressure strong enough to make market makers abandon the level (not Twitter). And they don’t abandon it because price rises—in fact, they cause the rise. They abandon it only when the cost of pushing price to that level becomes too high due to existing demand.” But that doesn’t stop you from benefiting from the rally. I’ve been sharing my entries—all in asset classes other than BTC. And my honest answer for the rest of the year: I don’t know if we’ll drop below the recent low again. But I do know a strong rally is coming. On one hand, despite being a market maker marker, I didn’t expect this level of bullish momentum. On the other hand, technically, nothing has changed yet. That means 52K is far from being invalidated, and the impulse move hasn’t been confirmed either. You’ll see who wants to make bold predictions on Twitter—and who wants to profit from the market. They’re not the same people. Focus on having a plan that works in both scenarios, not on guessing where the market is headed (posts don’t make money—strategy does). Especially at the end of wave 4. I never gamble on wave 4—I’ve said this long before it arrives. I take risks in all other waves. What will I do differently with crypto? Nothing. Everything was already decided: Accumulate what I want during compressions, and enter decisively upon breakout.

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