Yes, that’s the latest model from River just released, and if you break down the numbers, it offers a fascinating analysis. However, it’s more accurate to view the “$840K prediction” not as a direct forecast, but as a scenario model calculating how shifts in global asset allocation could impact Bitcoin’s price. Here’s the core structure: Global financial assets: ~$333 trillion → 20–40% of portfolios adopt Bitcoin → 2–4% of each portfolio allocated to BTC → $1.3T–$5.3T in new capital inflows → River assumes a historical **3x market cap multiplier** based on past data → BTC market cap: $5.5T–$17.5T → BTC price: ~$250K–$840K What I find most significant isn’t the $840K figure itself, but the fact that institutional Bitcoin exposure remains extremely low. According to River’s data, 29 of the top 30 U.S.-based RIAs already hold Bitcoin—but the median allocation is only 0.10%. This means the central debate has shifted from *“Will institutions buy Bitcoin?”* to *“How much will they allocate?”* And here’s what makes River’s upper scenario particularly compelling: $840K per BTC ≈ ¥1.15 billion per BTC (assuming a simple exchange rate of 1,370 KRW per USD) Owning just one BTC would then exceed ¥1 billion in value. The biggest variable, however, is the 3x multiplier. River bases this on historical patterns showing that every $1 of new capital into Bitcoin historically increased its market cap by over $3. But as the Bitcoin market grows larger, this multiplier may diminish—or if long-term holders release significant supply during price appreciation, the $840K target may not be reached. River explicitly acknowledges that these assumptions could prove incorrect. Therefore, I find the most useful interpretation of this analysis to be: $250K = Realistic bullish scenario where institutional allocation begins in earnest $500K = Scenario where Bitcoin becomes a standard alternative asset in global portfolios $840K = Super-bullish scenario where 2–4% allocation becomes widespread and deeply entrenched Ultimately, the strongest takeaway from River’s report isn’t that *everyone* must buy Bitcoin for it to reach $840K—it’s that even a small fraction of global financial assets shifting within existing portfolios, allocating just a few percent to Bitcoin, could generate trillions in demand. This adds another compelling institutional allocation argument supporting our previous $500K Bitcoin scenario.