Trump has once again ramped up pressure on the Fed to cut rates, threatening to cut trade ties with countries running trade deficits with the U.S. if the Fed doesn’t lower rates. In reality, Trump and Walsh now want entirely different things. Trump seeks growth and cheap money—lower rates make it cheaper for the government to borrow, easier for businesses to finance, and more likely for stocks and the economy to rise. Walsh, by contrast, is focused on preserving the dollar’s purchasing power and the Fed’s credibility. The louder Trump shouts, the less likely Walsh is to yield—otherwise, markets may truly begin to question the Fed’s independence. The most awkward part is that while Trump pushes for rate cuts, he’s simultaneously waging trade wars and taking military action against Iran. Tariffs may push up goods prices, while conflict keeps oil prices above $90—effectively urging Walsh to cut rates while his own actions make rate cuts far more difficult. This is why the September 11 CPI release has become critically important. Bloomberg expects headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core CPI at 2.4%. If core inflation continues to show clear cooling, the Fed may still treat high oil prices as a supply shock and hold off until September. But if CPI comes in again above expectations, compounded by a strong NFP report and elevated oil prices, a September rate hike becomes increasingly inevitable—and markets may even begin pricing in a second hike in December.