The key mistake is treating pipeline cost pressure as proof of entrenched inflation. ISM is absolutely telling us that tariffs, energy, freight and imported inputs are pushing costs higher, but that does not prove broad excess demand is validating those increases. A supply shock can spread through hundreds of prices while real incomes, margins, hiring and discretionary spending weaken underneath. The real test is whether expectations, broad wage growth, quits, hiring and demand sensitive inflation are reaccelerating. If they are not, then hiking because pipeline costs look hot risks mistaking propagation for entrenchment and deliberately crushing already weak demand to offset inflation that may already be creating its own demand destruction.