Macro continues to dominate the crypto complex. A factor decomposition for digital asset returns includes #market, #DXY, #FedFunds, and #oil factors. In 2026, the 30-day correlation between bitcoin:native and $DXY returned to approximately -0.90 in April, after a false decoupling in Q1, while the correlation with Fed funds is around -0.45. A strong dollar and hawkish repricing were the dominant short factors in H1. DXY has since fallen below 100, a necessary but not sufficient condition for the August rebound. Regarding the Fed reaction function, the probability of a 25bp hike at the September FOMC is around 62%, down from 66-70% earlier in the month. August #ADP data was soft at +38k, with consensus at 47k. Upcoming catalysts include the #NFP report and #CPI. A local estimate suggests a repricing of hike probability from 70% to 40% has historically moved BTC by several thousand dollars, with hawkish surprises having a larger absolute impact than dovish ones. This week's binary catalyst is the NFP. A miss below +65k could open the path to 80k, while a hot surprise could push BTC back to 74-76k.