1. The complex is no longer in pure capitulation, nor is it in confirmed bull territory. August = candidate regime shift. September = macro test (NFP → FOMC). 2. @Bitcoin remains the "numeraire". Active cost basis $76,350 = dividing line. 83k = confirmation. Dominance at 59.6% = alts are not yet entitled to an independent cycle. 3. @ethereum is a cyclical laggard, not a structural invalid. The 2026 thesis (stablecoins, tokenization) remains intact; pricing requires ETH/BTC to stop declining. 4. @XRPLF is a regulatory option plus a net supply issue. September escrow = 300M net, already priced in. True convexity = hashtag#CLARITY; the prediction market says 2026 legislation is unlikely. Trade the 9/15 event, not the slogan. 5. @solana has the best endogenous supply shock in the basket (voted disinflation + Alpenglow 9/28) and the worst beta. Tight sizing. 6. #ETFflows are the only truly observable "smart money." IBIT AUM $60B is the marginal buyer. A sustained reversal in creations beats any on-chain narrative.
STEELLDY.COMShare
Source:Show original
Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information.
Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.