Alpha doesn't exist. At least not consistently and with duration. Most hedge funds managers (that you know the names of) were in the right place at the right time and saw a temporary yet repeatable pattern and rode it into the sunset. A generational sprint. But the world often mistakes this for skill/intelligence. It's not. The luckiest of the bunch ride these huge waves for years, others merely a few months...but the luck always runs dry at some point. This is why it's extremely rare for a hedge fund manager to consistently beat the index. Because alpha doesn't exist. It's a function of luck + the balls to surf the biggest waves with size. The only real alpha is realizing when your "window of luck" is running dry and pivoting to finding a new set up to exploit. This is a feature of the financial markets, not a bug. Don't spend your time standardizing a set of rules, beliefs, and ideas...because it's all fluid. Markets will change and leave you behind. Instead, be laser-focused on preparing your mind & capital to catch the wave that's inevitably coming. The true skill is recognizing these temporary edges and exploiting them aggressively before they disappear. And they always disappear. This requires having strong conviction, opinions, rules...but holding them very loosely.
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