Although many on Twitter currently view this phase as the beginning of a Bitcoin bull market, it’s important to temper expectations, as the macroeconomic environment has clearly tightened. As of September 2, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.79%, while Japan’s 10-year yield has reached 3%, its highest level since 1996. Polymarket trading data shows the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September has increased to approximately 59%, with a 40.5% chance of holding rates steady. Meanwhile, market expectations for the midterm elections have shifted, with the probability of Republicans losing control of the House at around 89% and the Senate at approximately 51%. These developments collectively point to rising funding costs and declining market risk appetite. Higher U.S. Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, while rising expectations for Japanese rate hikes could trigger unwinding of yen carry trades. If Republicans lose congressional control, the Trump administration’s ability to advance crypto-friendly policies will also be constrained. Thus, even if Bitcoin remains within a bull cycle, it may experience significant short-term volatility and deleveraging, with price rebounds likely to face resistance. Bitcoin will find it easier to resume sustained upward momentum only when bond yields peak, rate hike expectations cool, or capital flows back into the market.