Unlike on-chain behavior, which shows a positive attitude of accumulation, the derivatives market remains largely观望 (on hold). We know that liquidated short positions are the direct cause of declining open interest (OI). However, despite the price stagnating between $77,000 and $80,000 for two weeks, OI has remained flat at 440,000 to 455,000 contracts, showing no signs of replenishment. The price has risen 25%, which theoretically makes shorting more attractive—but those who opened shorts at $62,000 are now hesitant to do so at $78,000. The most plausible explanation is that “shorts have been scared.” Longs haven’t chased either. If this were a genuine trend reversal, the normal response would be for open interest to rise alongside price while funding rates turn positive. The fact that OI remains unchanged suggests most participants still view this rally as a short squeeze rather than a structural trend reversal. Either they’re waiting for a pullback, or they’re staying out entirely. From a cycle-bottom perspective, a rebound driven by deleveraging and spot demand is indeed a common feature of market bottoms. But currently, neither side is willing to make the first move—reflecting a cautious,观望 (wait-and-see) sentiment in the derivatives market. Additionally, the leverage ratio (ELR) has returned to around 0.26, its lowest level in nearly two years. This indicates that very little leveraged position remains on the market. The risk of cascading liquidations in the near term is very low, and extreme volatility driven by leverage is unlikely in either direction. Perhaps the market is simply waiting for the next macro event to provide direction.