This night, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has clearly escalated compared to recent days, with Trump directly issuing a stern warning: the agreement is no longer valuable; if Iran continues to retaliate, the U.S. will respond even more forcefully, even threatening to completely eliminate it. There is no sign of an end to the war; the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, making it difficult for oil prices to truly decline. Brent crude has surged back to around $96 per barrel, gradually transmitting upward pressure to transportation, production, and consumption, fueling persistent inflationary pressures. Just a few days ago, Walsh stated that if inflation does not subside, further rate hikes may be necessary, while Barr explicitly affirmed that if inflation does not cool sufficiently, decisive action should be taken. Within a week, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike in September have jumped from under 40% to approximately 67%. The decisive moment may come on September 11 with the CPI release. If inflation once again exceeds expectations, combined with oil prices nearing $100, it will become increasingly difficult for Walsh to justify avoiding a September hike. The critical question remains: after hiking in September, should another increase follow in December? The anticipated bull market may need to take a breather...