Andreas Steno Larsen: this spread has only been more extreme once since 1960. That was 1983, when inflation fell off a cliff. PCE is running hot above CPI, and his read is the spread itself is the signal. PCE borrows categories from PPI and puts less weight on shelter, and shelter has been very soft all summer. So PCE lags what's actually happening while CPI catches it first. His call, standing for weeks now: CPI is the directional guide. And CPI is pointing down.
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