With the midterm elections approaching, the U.S. military has launched another strike on Iran—who gave Trump the courage? Liang Jingru? Does Trump no longer want the Strait of Hormuz to remain open? Is he unconcerned about rising oil prices? Of course not! ┈➤ The U.S. Has Reached a Petroleum Agreement with Venezuela Trump’s confidence stems from Venezuela. ◆ August 28: Trump announced a petroleum agreement with Venezuela. ◆ August 29–30: Venezuelan officials released further details of the agreement. ◆ August 30–31: The U.S. military launched another strike against Iran. This sequence, and the close timing between these two events, inevitably invites speculation of a causal link. ┈➤ A Respectable Agreement U.S. Secretary of State Rubio @SecRubio confirmed on Twitter that $100 billion in private investment will support Venezuela’s oil production. Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, also confirmed that both sides signed a 25-year energy agreement aimed at developing 17 strategic oil fields. After reviewing multiple media sources, the U.S.-Venezuela agreement appears reasonably balanced. This collaboration is between the U.S. government and Venezuela’s private enterprise NABEP; NABEP holds no ownership of the oil fields, only development rights. In terms of equity, the U.S. holds 35%, while Venezuela holds 65%. A key detail in the agreement is that the U.S. has priority access to purchase 20% of the oil production at cost price. Some Chinese-language media reports vaguely referred to “majority control,” which is misleading. In reality, Venezuela holds the larger equity stake at 65%, while the U.S. holds a higher share of production allocation at 55%. Thus, Venezuela retains sovereignty and control over its oil resources, while the U.S. secures future crude oil supply. ┈➤ Final Thoughts It is precisely because of this agreement that Trump now has confidence. Once Venezuela’s oil industry is rebuilt, it can increase crude output and export to the U.S., helping to lower American oil prices. Of course, rebuilding Venezuela’s long-neglected oil infrastructure will take time. Therefore, the agreement may only provide short-term psychological reassurance for oil prices. Trump is unlikely to launch large-scale military action against Iran in the near term—at least not before the midterm elections.