On 28 August, Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole and released no data. Within three hours the September FOMC contract went from a 30% chance of a 25bp hike to 52% on both @Polymarket and @Kalshi; while four of this year's six CPI prints moved the same contract by less than half a point, because the outcome was already priced in. The Fed and 18 other central banks, every market, every fill: https://t.co/oQEr7VMkll
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