Three bear markets since 2013. All three ended at the same level Bitcoin is 3% under right now. The 50-week moving average, about $81,000 today. The first weekly close back above it after the bottom: October 2015, May 2019, March 2023. In all three cases price never closed one week back below it in the next six months, never revisited the bear low, and sat 55% to 141% higher a year on. The honest warning from the same data: April 2022 printed one weekly close above the level mid-bear and collapsed. The difference was the CSH Score, our cycle measure. The fake-out fired at a score of 65. The three real ones came off score floors of 22 or lower. Today's score is 37.6, off a floor of 20.6. The profile matches the real ones. The close above the 50-week MA hasn't happened yet. What I'm doing about it: nothing new. My plan stopped buying when the score crossed 30 and restarts if it drops back. The chart can take its time. The rules are already written.