Wash turned hawkish at Jackson Hole, and the CME's probability of a rate hike in September has risen from around 40% last week to approximately 57%. In the short term, risk assets are indeed under pressure. But I don’t think we need to be overly pessimistic yet—at least three points deserve attention: First, 57% is merely a probability—it does not mean a September rate hike is guaranteed. The non-farm payrolls on September 4 and the CPI on September 11 remain key windows for future repricing. As long as employment and inflation data do not support further rate hikes, the current 57% probability could quickly decline. Second, there is some policy tension between the Fed and the Treasury. On August 19, the Treasury announced an increase in the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks, partly aimed at boosting demand for long-dated bonds and lowering yields. If the Fed were to genuinely pivot toward rate hikes now, rising overall interest rates could partially offset the Treasury’s goal of reducing borrowing costs. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether September will bring a rate hike, a hold, or merely a hawkish signal to maintain tight financial conditions. Third—and most importantly in my view—funds have not significantly exited crypto. Last week, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $924 million, while ETH ETFs recorded net inflows of about $824 million. ETH’s capital inflows are now approaching those of BTC, indicating that institutions still maintain some expectation of further upside. Meanwhile, stablecoin supply continues to grow by roughly 0.47%. Even on the day of Wash’s speech, BTC spot ETFs saw only a net outflow of around $200 million—no panic-driven capital flight occurred. So what we’re seeing now is more like: Macro sentiment suddenly turned hawkish → markets repriced rate hike expectations → short-term pressure on risk assets. But liquidity conditions have not materially deteriorated, and the fundamental trend in crypto has not yet been broken. Therefore, my view is: short-term volatility and pullbacks warrant attention, but we shouldn’t immediately label this as a reversal simply because of a 57% probability of a rate hike. The key now is to closely monitor the upcoming non-farm payrolls and CPI data. If the data continues to reinforce rate hike expectations, reduce exposure and implement stop-losses promptly. If subsequent data re-presses rate hike expectations, this pullback could instead become an observation window for the next rally.