source avatarGeoMetric

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I've always used bear markets for deep study and backtesting. In previous bears I studied accumulation dynamics, and that work became Remora. This time I found myself drawn to the opposite end, breakouts and distribution. Probably because I wasn't satisfied with simply accumulating and then waiting through long stretches and holding through every swing (especially after last cycle). My belief had always been that you can't predict or time breakouts. You accumulate, then wait for confirmation before adding higher. But confirmation in crypto has a problem: by the time it arrives, it's late. You either get a small piece of the pie, or you get chopped out. So over the past few months I stopped looking only at the price chart. I started studying the market as a system, the relationships between one coin and the rest, where on the surface there seemed to be none. And I found something: certain signatures that appear before breakouts. Consistent enough that I could narrow down a window in which the probability of a breakout rises significantly. I've called it the 'ignition' window. It isn't an asset-level signal. It's one window for the entire market. It doesn't try to answer the question everyone asks - which coin will run? It answers a different one: when is any coin most likely to run. And that turns out to be the more useful question. You can't front-run an individual breakout. But you can know when the whole market is primed for them, and position accordingly. What I'm seeing so far: the windows flag most major impulses early. I haven't yet found an impulse that occurred outside one. Some windows do fail - but when they do, the window simply terminates rather than leaving you hanging. I've found two completely different methods for spotting these windows. This post shows the second. Simulations and testing are ongoing. The goal now is to narrow it further, down to the highest-probability setups. $BTC $ETH $XRP examples:

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