Trump has paused new military strikes against Iran, giving markets a temporary reprieve. As long as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz ease, oil prices and inflation expectations may cool, reducing external pressure on U.S. equities, semiconductors, and BTC. But I believe geopolitical risks have merely loosened their grip on the market for now—what will truly determine whether capital returns to stocks next week is whether companies can deliver solid earnings data. This week, I’m less focused on BTC’s weekend price swings and more on the post-market earnings reports from SpaceX and AMD on August 4. I hold $SPCX and a semiconductor position. SpaceX must prove Starlink can generate meaningful revenue and cash flow; AMD must demonstrate that AI server demand has truly translated into orders. I don’t think Wall Street is bearish on AI—it just refuses to keep paying for promises without substance. SpaceX’s rocket narrative is grand, but after going public, it must show capital efficiency and profitability. AMD’s growth can’t rely solely on industry expectations—AI chip shipments, data center revenue, and next-quarter guidance are what matter. The market is now auditing: how much was spent, and how much was recovered? If U.S.-Iran tensions continue to ease, and both SpaceX and AMD deliver strong growth and stable guidance, recent concerns about slowing AI hardware demand could subside, offering a rebound opportunity for semiconductors, memory, and BTC. But if geopolitical tensions flare again—or if either company issues weak guidance—the market will likely continue compressing AI valuations. These are the two critical threads to watch next week.