Liquidity update from last weeks market analysis. Many seem to be waiting for the Fed to inject liquidity, but I do not think that is where the next move comes from. Especially with higher inflation and the war continuing. In the short term, the TGA does much of the work. Treasury rebuilt its cash balance from roughly $738 billion on 10 July to $966 billion by 28 July. That removed around $228 billion from the financial system in less than three weeks. That build is now pretty much complete. The TGA has fallen on the first business day of August every year since 2022. Those drawdowns ranged from $44 billion to $120 billion, with a median of roughly $69 billion. My personal expectation is that Treasury releases between $50 billion and $100 billion into the system at the beginning of August. That should provide some support for risk assets and could help BTC move towards the upper VAMS range. However, I do not think this is the start of the major liquidity burst yet. Treasury also has around $111 billion of net issuance settling between 30 July and 4 August, which could absorb much of the liquidity released through spending. September tax receipts are then likely to rebuild the TGA again. The current plan is to finish September with roughly $950 billion in the account. From $966 billion, that is only a $16 billion net release by quarter end. So the expected path is a useful liquidity pulse at the beginning of August, followed by much of it being withdrawn again through issuance and tax receipts The next major signal will be Treasury’s updated year end TGA target. If it remains near $950 billion, there is no meaningful sustained injection coming. If it falls to $850 billion, around $100 billion could be released. If it falls to $750 billion, around $200 billion could be released. For now, I expect a short term boost rather than the beginning of a new liquidity cycle. In turn this keeps the majors ranging and the focus stays within the Alts as it has been the past few weeks. Another great entry was into ethereum:0x94314a14df63779c99c0764a30e0cd22fa78fc0e which is currently around 30% up since entry on the 25th. All port updates are shared within the dashboard.