ETF or Self-Custody? The Power Law Does Not Care. Since spot ETFs launched: Structural-break probability: 2.0% Break near ETF launch: 0.02% Mean-shift tests finding no break: 15 of 15 The data shows no new Bitcoin regime. A spot ETF still requires underlying $BTC. Derivatives can multiply exposure. They cannot multiply supply. Self-custody lowers counterparty risk. ETFs lower access friction. Unless demand, confidence or scarcity changes, the structural projection does not. Different custody but same 21 million supply.
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