source avatarMark Verner

Share

Betting more than the size prescribed by the Kelly criterion mathematically reduces long term capital growth and increases the risk of ruin, whereas the other individual did not. This is a classic lesson on why “overbetting Kelly” is a poor idea, even when you are confident in your edge. If you stake more than f*, the long run return in the geometric sense declines; with sufficient overbetting you arrive at a negative rate of capital growth and a high probability of ruin. Intuitively, even with a correct edge, an excessively large position size raises the chance of deep drawdowns from which recovery is difficult, and the mathematics of compounding penalises this behaviour severely.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information. Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.