source avatarSminston With 👁

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Bitcoin's price drawdown is 299 days old and 47% deep. Right on the median for a hole that size. Statistically boring. Hashrate over the same window: −23%, 280 days, past the 99th percentile. The rule is: deeper generally means slower. Currently that rule is breaking. We're shallower than Oct 2018 and Aug 2011, but slower than both. Shallow drawdowns recover fast because the machines are still sitting there. A miner running thin margins pulls the plug, waits out the dip, and switches back on when price improves. The capacity never actually leaves the network, so it returns quickly. Not this time. It's not the rigs that are gone, it's the power. Difficulty has been adjusting down this whole time, nearly 20% off its peak, and it still hasn't pulled that capacity back, because those megawatts are spoken for. It gets rebuilt elsewhere eventually. But building out isn't the same as 'switching on,' and therefore the rebound won't likely be as snappy as it used to be.

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