source avatarLuke Davis

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Watching Leopold’s fund unwind is difficult because he appears to have understood the scale of the AI buildout earlier than almost anyone in public markets. He built a remarkable fund around that view. However, the Citadel timing looks very suspect to me. They were publicly pushing the idea of a surprise rate hike while the AI trade was already under pressure. Soon after, Citadel was buying a large part of Leopold’s portfolio from lenders at the lows. From the outside, it reads like they helped turn the screw on a fragile market and then showed up when the forced seller had almost no room to negotiate. But here's why they could do that in the first place: Leopold gave them that opening through the way the fund was built. The portfolio carried heavy concentration and enough leverage on the positions that a violent month could easily hand control to the lenders. Once that happened, his positive view on AI didn't matter vs. the collateral rules attached to the account. Looking back at the month, my portfolio barely moved in July even though several holdings were quite volatile. The weights had already been set around the risk of each company. Larger allocations sat in durable businesses I could hold through a rough month. They bounced hard on earnings. Higher-beta names stayed small enough that I could watch the price move without being pulled into rushed decisions. That is why I spend so much time on position size and portfolio structure before buying anything. A strong thesis needs enough room to survive the path to fruition. Great reminder here for all of us to never forget the rules of the game. Manage your risk.

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