The current daily cycle is due for a low next week and seems exactly on track. After that, the next daily cycle low would be around 5 October, which will probably also be the current weekly cycle low, and presumably, the 4 year cycle low. However, keeping in mind that if not for FTX, the 2022 cycle would have bottomed in June followed by 4 months of near flat line accumulation (potentially delayed by 2 months by FTX), it's just a question of which one of these daily cycle lows is going to be the actual bottom. Also worth keeping in mind: ➡️ Current BTC accumulation gained a little relative strength over June/July, but lacked ANY significant reclaim and now there are plenty of lows needing to be swept. ➡️ The journey off the 4 year cycle low is usually slow and painful (have a look at 10 Jan 2023 for a reminder of how long it took before impulsive price action started). ➡️ Stocks and gold both still seem on track for their macro lows 4Q26 - highly unlikely that BTC performs all by itself if equities are dropping when BTC has been unable to do that all this year. ➡️ This bear market retrace is only at about 50%. Previous bears produced 83 and 78%. That suggests around 73% this time, but allowing for this cycle being so much flatter at the top (it underperformed the expected top to top factor), somewhere around 65% seems more likely. ➡️ 4 year cycle haters ignore some key facts about the 4 year cycle. Mainly, it doesn't have to be 4 years - it is a product of multiple influences. It is made up of daily and weekly cycles. By definition, the 4 year cycle low MUST happen at the end of a weekly (and daily) cycle. Weekly cycles are commonly 30-35 weeks, tending longer recently. The current weekly cycle started 6 Feb. 35 weeks would be early October. ➡️ The 4 year cycle has been running at around 47 months the last couple of cycles. Anything is possible but I haven't seen any evidence yet to suggest it goes longer this time. Weighing up all the research and metrics I am aware of, currently I'd put the odds like this: ➡️ Bottom already in on 1 July 10% ➡️ Bottom with this daily cycle low (~next week) 20% ➡️ Bottom with the next daily cycle low (~5 Oct) 60% ➡️ Bottom next daily cycle low after that ~(5 Dec) 10%