https://t.co/QI6MtjyPCO Japan-U.S. Coordinated Intervention! USD/JPY Briefly Hit 157. U.S. Stocks Leave Uncertainty Heading Into Next Week. Crypto Channel - Joe Takayama #AISummary Sharp Volatility in Crypto and U.S. Stocks Amid Market Caution 🔳 Overall Market Movement The crypto market experienced a significant decline, while U.S. stocks showed divergent performance based on earnings results. While Amazon and Google rose, several semiconductor-related stocks saw steep declines, leading to highly volatile trading conditions. 🔳 Earnings-Driven Stock Disparities Cloud-related companies and select large-cap stocks that posted strong earnings rose, while semiconductor firms that missed expectations were sold off. Even rising stocks declined toward the close of trading or during after-hours sessions, indicating cautious outlooks for continued gains next week. 🔳 Hedge Fund Forced Liquidations It was suggested that funds with excessive leverage were forced to liquidate, with Citadel acquiring their assets at substantial discounts. 🔳 Concerns Over Additional Liquidations Forced liquidations may not end here; other hedge funds carrying similarly high leverage could also be affected. Overseas funds heavily invested in AI-related assets reportedly suffered major losses, raising fears of cascading sell-offs across markets. 🔳 Comparison to 2008 During the 2008 financial crisis, problems spread beyond Bear Stearns’ rescue to include Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch. Similarly, this time, the liquidation of a single fund may not be the end of the story. 🔳 U.S. Consumer Sentiment U.S. consumer sentiment reached its highest level in five months, indicating resilient consumer confidence despite ongoing price increases. 🔳 U.S. Employment Costs Employment costs rose 0.9% quarter-over-quarter from April to June. While the labor market remains stable, it is not currently a strong driver of inflation. 🔳 Inflation Outlook Overall inflation appears to be cooling, but service prices and certain goods remain elevated. With consumer sentiment still strong, a rapid decline in inflation is considered unlikely. 🔳 Concerns Over Yen Intervention The New York Fed reportedly conducted yen rate checks, sparking surprise in markets. There is growing awareness that Japan and the U.S. may be coordinating efforts to curb yen depreciation. 🔳 Bank of Japan’s Stance BOJ Governor Ueda noted that exchange rate fluctuations now have a greater impact on prices than before. He also hinted that if monetary conditions are deemed overly accommodative, the pace of rate hikes could accelerate. 🔳 Kioxia’s Earnings Kioxia’s operating profit fell below market expectations, disappointing investors. However, the company announced a ¥800 billion share buyback program, suggesting future focus will shift from short-term earnings to sustained business growth. ListItemIcon Dangers of Hardware Wallets A case was highlighted where a flaw in a hardware wallet’s random number generation compromised private key security, resulting in fund losses. The warning: simply using a hardware wallet does not guarantee safety. ListItemIcon Crypto Asset Management It is critical to re-evaluate the security of your devices and systems, avoid continuing to use outdated products, and avoid concentrating assets in one place—diversify management methods instead. ListItemIcon Lawsuit Against Prediction Markets New York State filed a lawsuit against the prediction market service Kalshi, classifying it as illegal gambling and seeking substantial damages and service suspension. Issues such as age restrictions could negatively impact the entire prediction market sector. ListItemIcon Bitcoin’s Status Bitcoin fell below $63,000 but remains within its current trading range. After the FOMC meeting, the direction of monetary policy remains unclear, making it difficult to anticipate the next rate cut. ListItemIcon Caution Ahead of Employment Data Future employment data could shift expectations around rate cuts, potentially leading to further volatility in both crypto and equity markets. ListItemIcon Liquidity Decline in August Market participation typically declines in August, leading to lower liquidity and trading volume. In thin markets, speculative trading or forced liquidations can cause sharp price movements disconnected from fundamentals. ListItemIcon U.S. Stock Rally Strength The NASDAQ ultimately rose 0.6%, but failed to deliver the strong upward momentum initially anticipated. Weak momentum suggests the possibility of renewed downward pressure next week. ListItemIcon U.S. Interest Rate Movements The 2-year yield remained largely unchanged, while the 10-year and 30-year yields rose. Persistently high long-term rates could negatively affect U.S. debt servicing and corporate activity. ListItemIcon Middle East Tensions and Oil Prices Tensions between the U.S. and Iran may persist, keeping oil prices near $85. If tensions ease, this could become a positive catalyst for both stock and crypto markets. ListItemIcon Future Investment Strategy In the short term, continued upward momentum appears unlikely, and caution is warranted regarding additional hedge fund liquidations. Investors should carefully manage leverage and positions, prioritize asset protection, and seek long-term investment opportunities amid this environment.