$BTC: Exchange liquidity remains slightly constructive, but the positive on-chain momentum has clearly lost steam. Over the past four weeks, Bitcoin holdings on exchanges declined by approximately 6,900 BTC, or 0.52%. Meanwhile, the price increased by only 2.6%. Notably, the week of July 17–24 showed: 🔹 Exchange Supply: −7,398 BTC 🔹 Net Exchange Flows: −5,306 BTC 🔹 BTC Price: Just +1.2% The strongest outflows of the month failed to trigger a sustained breakout, suggesting that reduced selling supply has not been matched by sufficient spot demand. Last week, the trend reversed slightly: 🔸 Exchange Supply: +1,379 BTC 🔸 BTC Price: −0.4% 🔸 ELRI: Decline from July’s local high toward neutral Since the Bitcoin peak, roughly 54,324 BTC have left exchanges, yet the price is nearly 50% lower. Declining exchange balances reduce potential selling pressure—but they do not replace demand. The ELRI remains currently neutral to slightly constructive but shows a clear negative momentum divergence. A potential bullish confirmation would only occur if Bitcoin breaks above the June high near $67,200 and the ELRI simultaneously forms a new local high. Conversely, a drop of the index below the zero line amid rising exchange balances would be a clear warning signal. Knowledge is wealth. Recognize trends. Act with foresight. TSC | Trend Serra Capital