If you open a short as soon as you see a bearish structure, you're trading the trap, not the move. The logic of the ICT 2022 model is simpler than most believe: The market does not reverse first. It first absorbs liquidity. Buy-side liquidity is cleared. Price rises above equal highs or previous highs. Stop losses on short positions are triggered. Buyers enter the market. A Market Structure Shift (MSS) forms. After liquidity is absorbed, price breaks a significant low. This is the first serious confirmation that market structure has shifted to the downside. Liquidity absorption alone is not enough. A trade opened without witnessing an MSS is still a guess. A Fair Value Gap (FVG) forms. During a sharp decline, price leaves behind an imbalance. This area now becomes a potential reversal and selling zone. Price returns to the FVG. While the crowd waits for another rally, professionals look for sell confirmation here. The real entry often occurs not during the initial drop, but during this retracement. The target is sell-side liquidity—previous lows and accumulated stop orders below. Summary of the model: Liquidity absorption → MSS → FVG retracement → Sell → Target liquidity Most traders chase the initial breakout. Professionals wait to see if the structure has truly changed after liquidity is absorbed. In your opinion, what’s the most expensive mistake? Opening a short immediately after liquidity is taken—or failing to wait for the FVG retracement?
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