I've been quiet so I want to write a few thoughts out and just kinda lay out how I've been thinking about the market over the last six months. Back in Feb, I was bullish crypto and thought there was still a meaningfully good chance things could reverse higher, mid-cycle, etc. There was data to back it all up, and while sentiment was fearful, expectations were still leaning bullish. A lot of people were looking for that final squeeze of liquidity, dominance to roll over, rotation from Gold and stocks. It was crypto's turn right? But it didn't play out. Bitcoin pumped to 82.8k, altcoins did well too, but structurally there was nothing impulsive in the price action off the lows. That's always a red flag for me, and it's important. The whole move was given back, and with Bitcoin at 57.8k everyone was calling the bottom again, but again, no impulsive price action off the lows, a mechanical bounce that failed at 66.7k resistance. Since then, Bitcoin has been flirting with the 200 week sma and the timeline has become majority bullish. There's no doubt the Bitcoin chart has improved a lot. Bullish divergences on multiple timeframes and a potential inverse head and shoulders, though on my read the right shoulder still needs building, most likely on a dip back to 60k, before a break of 66.7k unlocks anything meaningful. It's not unreasonable to think the bottom is in, but it's not certain. Issues that continue to give me pause are, again, the total lack of any impulsive price action off the lows, and a precarious stock market heading into a seasonally weak August and September. Macro still looks good. Bottom is not confirmed. New lows still a possibility.