📊 XWIN TREND INDEX | July 31, 2026 Overall Score: 68 / 100 •80–100 = Strong Uptrend •60–79 = Moderately Bullish •40–59 = Neutral / No Clear Direction •20–39 = Moderately Bearish •0–19 = Strong Downtrend 7-Day Moving Average: 57.43 ↓ 14-Day Moving Average: 64.43 ↓ Market Direction: Moderately Bullish Bitcoin has recovered above $64,000, supported by the rebound in U.S. equities and renewed spot buying on Coinbase. However, both moving averages continue to trend lower, indicating that a confirmed trend reversal has not yet been established. ________________________________________ Market Summary •Bitcoin is trading around $64,700, recovering from the recent low near $63,500 after the FOMC meeting. •The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but the 9–3 vote highlighted increasing disagreement within the FOMC and reinforced expectations that rates could remain higher for longer. •Coinbase recorded its largest spot Bitcoin buying activity since July 22, suggesting renewed institutional demand in the U.S. market. •The total stablecoin market capitalization has continued to decline, indicating that fresh liquidity entering the crypto market remains limited. •Approximately $10.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are approaching expiration, increasing the likelihood of short-term volatility. •Bipartisan negotiations on the CLARITY Act continue, although the Senate has not yet formally moved the bill toward a floor vote. •Ethereum spot demand remains stable, while futures positioning is balanced, suggesting limited speculative excess. •Strong earnings from Microsoft and Amazon helped improve overall risk appetite across global markets. ________________________________________ On-Chain & Technical Trends •Bitcoin rebounded from the critical $63,500 support level and is once again testing resistance near $65,000. •A sustained move above $65,000 would shift attention toward the major resistance zone around $67,000–$68,000. •Coinbase has recorded a notable increase in spot buying, indicating improving demand from U.S. investors. •More than 217,000 BTC continue moving into long-term holding addresses every month, reinforcing the long-term accumulation trend. •Exchange reserves continue to decline, reducing the amount of Bitcoin readily available for sale. •Meanwhile, shrinking stablecoin supply suggests that fresh spot-market liquidity remains weaker than earlier in the year. •Hyperliquid data still shows large traders maintaining net short exposure, reflecting cautious sentiment in the derivatives market. •Elevated Open Interest ahead of major option expirations increases the probability of both short squeezes and liquidation-driven volatility. ________________________________________ Sentiment •Market sentiment has improved following the recovery in U.S. equities and Bitcoin's move back above $64,000. •Bitcoin continues to show greater stability than many large-cap technology stocks, reinforcing its role as an increasingly independent asset class. •More than one million emails and phone calls supporting the CLARITY Act have reportedly been sent to U.S. senators, demonstrating strong industry engagement. •The SEC continues to express support for clearer digital asset regulations while emphasizing the importance of comprehensive legislation. •Political negotiations surrounding ethics provisions and developer protections still create uncertainty regarding the timing of the Senate vote. •Strategy reported a large accounting loss but continues expanding its Bitcoin holdings while strengthening its balance sheet. •The approaching Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiration is encouraging traders to reduce leverage and rebalance positions. •Overall sentiment has improved from the previous day, but conviction remains moderate rather than strongly bullish. ________________________________________ U.S. Traditional Markets •The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged while maintaining a cautious stance toward inflation. •Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, continuing to pressure both growth stocks and digital assets. •Microsoft reported exceptionally strong Azure growth, confirming continued momentum in AI and cloud computing. •Amazon also exceeded earnings expectations, helping drive a broad recovery in U.S. equities. •Although inflation data has moderated, the Federal Reserve has not signaled any imminent policy easing. •Rising geopolitical risks and fluctuations in energy prices continue to influence inflation expectations and bond yields. •The Bank of Japan meeting and ongoing foreign exchange volatility remain important drivers of yen-denominated Bitcoin prices. •Market participants are now focused on employment data, inflation indicators, and the next major macroeconomic catalysts. ________________________________________ Overall Assessment Bitcoin has recovered from the $63,500 support zone back into the mid-$64,000 range. Improving Coinbase spot demand, stronger U.S. equity performance, and continued long-term accumulation support a more constructive outlook than the previous day, leading to a significant improvement in the XWIN Trend Index. However, both the 7-day and 14-day moving averages continue to decline, while stablecoin liquidity remains weak and Open Interest remains elevated. These factors suggest that the market has not yet confirmed a sustainable bullish reversal. Today's key indicators include ETF flows, Open Interest following options expiration, Bitcoin's ability to break above $65,000, and whether institutional spot buying through Coinbase continues. Sustained spot demand will be essential for confirming a stronger medium-term uptrend.