the real #1 Polymarket trader made +$49M profit all on 1 bet, Trump wins the 2024 election. polymarket's global leaderboard shows that SwissTony (+$22.4M PNL) recently overtook Theo4 (+$22M PNL) as #1 trader. this isn't accurate. Because in reality Theo4 has 4 accounts to his name totalling $49M profit - Theo4 : +$22.4M - Freddie999 : +$16.6M - PrincessCaro : +$6M - Michie : +$3M Using these 4 accounts, he accumulated YES shares on "Trump win the 2024 presidential election" and "Trump wins the 2024 popular vote" during the 2 months leading up to the election. Most impressive is that from what we know, he is just a random French guy, with no access to insider information. Here is how he did it : Theo4 ran his own private polls ahead of the election using a special method called "neighbor polling". In neighbor polling, you dont ask the subject who they think will vote for, you instead ask them who they think their neighbor will vote for. This has the effect of removing social desirability bias, which would make the subject likely to profess intention to vote for a controversial candidates. Seeing how controversial Trump was in 2024, this was a very smart move He went all in on that and walked away with $49M. well deserved