One of Ken Griffin’s biggest strengths is what he does immediately after someone else blows up. Enron collapsed and Citadel is in Houston almost immediately interviewing the people who actually understood the energy markets. Those hires helped become the foundation of Citadel’s commodities business. Amaranth blows itself up on natural gas in 2006. Citadel and JPMorgan take over the portfolio, Citadel eventually takes JPMorgan’s share too, and makes money working through the positions. Sowood gets crushed in 2007 and needs liquidity. Citadel puts a team together overnight and buys the distressed portfolio. After 2008, banks are shrinking trading operations and firing people. Citadel goes on a hiring spree and continues building out what becomes Citadel Securities. The pattern is more sophisticated than “buy low.” A crisis suddenly makes things available that normally aren’t for sale: great traders, domain expertise, customer relationships, data, market share, entire teams. Griffin has repeatedly had the balance sheet, organization and decisiveness to show up while everyone else is dealing with the wreckage. That’s why the Situational Awareness situation is interesting. Maybe Leopold’s trades simply went sideways and leverage forced him to sell. Citadel happens to have the capital to take the portfolio. But the distressed portfolio isn’t necessarily the opportunity. The opportunity is getting access to the people who found the trade in the first place. Their research process, their networks, their relationships with founders and executives, their understanding of the infrastructure underneath the thesis. The information flows and institutional knowledge they spent years building. Portfolios can be copied. That expertise is much harder or impossible to recreate. If Citadel eventually ends up hiring some of the AI talent around Situational, it would fit the playbook Griffin has been running forever: use periods of dislocation not just to buy assets cheaply, but to acquire talent, knowledge and infrastructure that compound long after the original trade is gone.
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